Abstract
The study assesses whether the development of Kazakhstan’s research capacity has been matched by measurable innovation outcomes during 2015–2025. A compact input-output framework is constructed from five indicators: gross domestic expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP, R&D personnel and R&D-performing organizations per million residents, the share of innovation-active enterprises, and innovative products as a share of GDP. Each series is rebased to 2015 = 100 and aggregated by geometric means into an Input Capacity Index, an Innovation Output Index, a Balanced Development Index, and a descriptive Conversion Ratio. National statistics and World Bank population data are used; arithmetic aggregation provides a robustness check. The results reveal an asymmetric trajectory. In 2025, input capacity reached 96.7, remaining slightly below its 2015 baseline, while innovation output increased to 149.0 and balanced development to 120.0. The conversion ratio peaked in 2020 and stood at 154.1 in 2025, but this does not constitute causal efficiency because outputs can reflect lagged inputs, imports, sectoral concentration, and denominator effects. The findings support policy monitoring that separates resource capacity from market-oriented results and prioritizes sustained R&D intensity, business participation, commercialization links, and regional diversification.