Abstract
In many countries of the world, small dams used to accumulate water for irrigation are the most widespread. The peak of construction of such dams occurred in the middle of the last century, currently the structures are subject to the aging process. Deficiencies in the organization of the work of operating services negatively affect the reliability of small earth dams. One of the forecasting methods in safety analysis can be a probabilistic forecast. In this case, monitoring data from control and measuring equipment is not required. Identification between the reliability of an earth homogeneous dam and its characteristics such as service life and maximum height in the channel part was studied in the presented article. The empirical basis of the research was data on the condition of dams that had no owners in one of the regions of Russia. The survey was carried out by certified experts from 2003 to 2020. A probabilistic method using a logistic function was proposed as the main research method. The use of logit models made it possible to assess the impact of two most important factors on the reliability of dams - the service life of an earth dam and its maximum height in the channel part. Keywords: hydrotechnical facilities; earth dams; reliability model; safety.