Аннотация
The classification of the natural and anthropogenic destabilizing factors of a telecommunications network as a complex system is presented herein. This research shows that to evaluate the parameters of a telecommunications network in the presence of destabilizing factors, it is necessary to modify classical linear methods to reduce their sensitivity to the incompleteness of a priori information. Using generalized linear models of multiple regression, a combined method was developed for assessing and predicting the survivability of a telecommunications network under conditions of uncertainty regarding the influence of destabilizing factors. The method consists of accumulating current information about the parameters and state of the network, the statistical analysis and processing of information, and the extraction of sufficient sample statistics. The basis of the developed method was balancing multiple correlation–regression analysis with the number of regression equations and the observed results. Various methods of estimating the mathematical expectation and correlation matrix of the observed results under the conditions of random loss of part of the observed data (for example, removing incomplete sample elements, substituting the average, pairwise crossing out, and substituting the regression) were analyzed. It was established that a shift in the obtained estimates takes place under the conditions of a priori uncertainty of the statistics of the observed data. Given these circumstances, recommendations are given for the correct removal of sample elements and variables with missing values. It is shown that with significant unsteadiness of the parameters and state of the network under study and a noticeable imbalance in the number of regression equations and observed results, it is advisable to use stepwise regression methods.