Abstract
Floods are among the most frequent and devastating natural disasters, causing significant economic damage and loss of life worldwide. Effective flood risk management relies on accurate modeling techniques that can predict vulnerable areas and assess potential impacts. In this study, flood dynamics are simulated in the Irtysh River Basin near Ust-Kamenogorsk, a city in East Kazakhstan prone to seasonal flooding using high-resolution satellite imagery and digital elevation data. The primary objective is to visually model flood risks based on terrain characteristics. The study utilizes imagery sourced from the Mapbox platform, which combines data from MODIS, Landsat 7, Maxar, and the Google Earth Engine, providing access to Sentinel-2 surface reflectance imagery at 10-meter resolution. Elevation data from the Copernicus global digital elevation model, with a 30-meter resolution, is used to simulate flood progression. The flood simulation involves calculating flood depth relative to the terrain’s elevation, allowing for a pixel-by-pixel determination of submerged areas. Each simulation incrementally increases water levels to generate a sequence of images, showcasing the progression of flooding over time. The study describes hydraulic soil characteristics usage, and focuses on visualizing flood risk based on terrain data and water level changes. The simulation results indicate that flooding initially impacts riverbanks as water flow starts from the northwest of the city with critical infrastructure becoming vulnerable once water levels exceed 2 meters from the lowest elevation point. These findings highlight the potential of high-resolution satellite imagery and terrain data for flood risk assessment and improving urban flood preparedness. The results provide valuable insights into flood progression enabling more informed decision-making for disaster mitigation.