Abstract
Land use/land cover (LULC) changes significantly impact spatiotemporal groundwater levels, posing a challenge for sustainable water resource management. This study investigates the long-term (2000–2022) influence of LULC dynamics, particularly urbanization, on groundwater depletion in Kabul, Afghanistan, using geospatial techniques. A time series of Landsat imagery (Landsat 5, 7 ETM+, and 8 OLI/TIRS) was employed to generate LULC maps for five key years (2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022) using a supervised classification algorithm based on Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Our analysis revealed a significant expansion of urban areas (70%) across Kabul City between 2000 and 2022, particularly concentrated in Districts 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, and 22. Urbanization likely contributes to groundwater depletion through increased population growth, reduced infiltration of precipitation, and potential overexploitation of groundwater resources. The CA-Markov model further predicts continued expansion in built-up areas over the next two decades (2030s and 2040s), potentially leading to water scarcity, land subsidence, and environmental degradation in Kabul City. The periodic assessment of urbanization dynamics and prediction of future trends are considered the novelty of this study. The accuracy of the generated LULC maps was assessed for each year (2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022), achieving overall accuracy values of 95%, 93.8%, 85%, 95.6%, and 93%, respectively. These findings provide a valuable foundation for the development of sustainable management strategies for Kabul’s surface water and groundwater resources, while also guiding future research efforts.