Abstract
The key goal of this research is to propose a method (and a tool) to explore theevolution of the energy sector in Kazakhstan subject to a flexible “user-defined”criterion (e.g. perception of risk for the system), so as to trigger the transition towardsthe emission reduction in an “indirect” manner. The undertaken experiments show thatrisk reduction policies can be very “synergic” with mitigation ambitions, or, in otherwords, that the transition towards GHG mitigation can be pushed by other forces(rather than by pure environmental concerns only). The potential beneficiaries of sucha type of analysis are groups of stakeholders of various nature: decision makers,academia, civil society, experts interested in proposing/testing alternative formulationof the additional criterion of the analysis (e.g. definition of risky configuration of theenergy mix) and in assessing the impacts on the energy and climate dynamics ofKazakhstan. The “basic” structure of the model (upon which the updated and moretargeted version of the model used in this study is built) is available on a collaborativeplatform. This study is part of the research material that aims to support theinvestigation of carbon neutrality pathways in Kazakhstan and it can be seen as acontinuation and further development of the “Kazakhstan’s Road to Net Zero GHGEmission Vision”.