Applying machine learning models for predicting forest fires in Australia and the influence of weather on the spread of fires based on satellite and weather forecast data.

Bakhtiyor Askarovich Meraliyev, Kurmangazy Kongratbayev

2020

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DOI 10.47344/iysw.v9i0.187
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

What shall we expect from the year 2020? The coronavirus pandemic is not the worst thing that humanity can face in the near future. According to the observations of the scientists, in March, 2020, the planet temperature warmed up to the record-high level. Also, the temperature of the world’s oceans exceeded its average temperatures by 80%, and prognosis of the meteorological observations is not good. The warming seas had already led to catastrophic disaster. The average temperature increase can also lead to hurricanes, drought, invasion of locusts and, the worst, to forest fires. Natural disasters lead to loss of life, destruction of properties and infrastructure, loss of animal natural habitats, displacement of humans. And the results of these all lead to humanitarian catastrophes, including social and economic.The situations related to the nature are always very serious, as the whole world is involved. This is like butterfly effect, i.e., the natural disaster in Australia affect the economic and ecologic situation in USA and England. Taking the Australia, they faced problem that cannot be avoided. Nevertheless, the world can be prepared and prevent from the huge disasters. The forecasting of forest fires can really be helpful, as well as the inquiry of the weather impact on fires. The current paper is focused on the study of fire forecasting and weather influence on fire. The relevance of the study is important, as the global warming and human caused fires are increasing and there is a trend that Australia’s fires became more dangerous and longer lasting. The artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning algorithms, can help to make appropriate calculations and predictions to safe the ecosystem and human lives.According to the preliminary research results we acquire; in-depth multidimensional analysis confirms almost 100 percent dependence of bushfires on the weather conditions. Using the machine learning algorithms, it would be possible to predict the time and positioning of inflammation source.