Abstract
The electricity generation mix in Kazakhstan will be changed due to pushing up the share of intermittent renewables (RE) in the next two decades. The fulfillment of the expected demand for electricity in 2035 can lead to issues when the transmission capacity limit and permissible power surge are reached. In this paper analyzed two scenarios when renewable generation output in South Kazakhstan dropdown for 50% and 80%. Permissible power surge in the north-south transit according to the dynamic stability conditions and their impact on the network reliability were assessed. The short-term (8 seconds) operating edges of the power system to avoid unstable regimes were calculated using the Power Factory modeling tool. Optimal Power Flow (OPF) modeling approach was used for the technical and economic assessment of the impact of RE penetration in the electric power system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. To conclude, mathematical modeling of the optimal distributed mix of the mass deployment of solar and wind RE could minimize the dynamic instability and violation of power balance in the network.