Глобальный циклический переход – 2020: теория и методология

The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 2020

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.26577/be.2020.v132.i2.01
Data confidence 70 medium
How this score is calculated

It is built from checkable properties of the record itself: whether the article has a DOI, how many independent sources confirmed its data, whether the required fields are filled in, and how recent the latest confirmation is. Disagreement between sources and a missing identifier lower it. A value of 80 or above means the record was published without further checking; 60 to 79 means it is published at reduced confidence, with a manual check advisable. A record verified by an editor by hand is never pushed below 90 by a recalculation. This scores our data about the article, not the article itself.

Abstract

100 years have passed (taking into account the number of days in the lunar month) since the collapseof the largest companies stocks on world exchanges marked the beginning of the Great Depression(1929-1933). Stock markets are a kind of litmus paper showing changes in the world. The events of thoseyears revealed the inability of the market to maintain a political economic equilibrium in the long run andthe inevitability of world cyclical crises. The beginning of a new cycle is evidenced by the events of thebeginning of 2020 in global stock markets.The reason for the beginning of the modern world crisis was COVID-19, which erupted at the end of2019 in China and spread throughout the world, connected by the threads of global population mobility.But that is not the reason.The purpose of the study is to identify the prerequisites, causes and consequences of the modernglobal cyclic transition. The main reason lies in the escalating contradictions that hinder the implementationof the new technologies achievements born by the information revolution in the end of 20th century.The methodological basis of the study is the main provisions of the scientific heritage and evolutionarychanges in the theory of cyclicality and crises; observation, unity of historical and logical, comparisonand extrapolation methods used.The results of the study can be traced in the following. Dynamic economic equilibrium is determinedby the balance of the resource support system: informational, social, environmental, spiritual, material.Disturbances in the system are manifested in cyclical recessions. In this aspect, Kazakhstan remainsamong the most vulnerable countries, due to a number of objective and subjective factors.