The Course of the Epidemic process of measles on the territory of the republic of Kazakhstan

Toktibayeva Gulnur

2017

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DOI 10.22377/ijms.v1i01.1
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

The article conducts a retrospective epidemiological analysis of long-term and annual dynamics of theincidence of measles of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period 1993-2015 years.The "average annual rate of decline/increase" and predicted (theoretical) incidence of measles in 2016 arecalculated. The prediction method that was based on finding analytical expressions of the trend todetermine the level of incidence of measles for the next year is used. Analysis of monthly incidence ofmeasles identified winter-spring seasonality. The increasing of incidence was observed from mid Januaryto April. Analysis of cases of the measles on the territory, cases at 2-week intervals in 2015was made.The average lengths of hospital stay of patients.