Mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Astana and its association with high temperatures

A M Grjibovski, Nassikhat Nurgaliyeva, Gulmira Kozhakhmetova, Bibigul Adilbekova, A Sharbakov, Сейсембеков Тельман Зейналлинович, B Kosbayeva, Menne

2013

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DOI 10.1093/eurpub/ckt123.131
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Background Associations between high temperatures and both the overall mortality and mortality from diseases of circulatory system have been observed in many cities in Europe and North America. However, the evidence from rapidly developing settings with newly built infrastructure is scarce. Objectives: To study associations between maximum apparent air temperature and daily mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular causes in a rapidly developing city with a continental climate - Astana, Kazakhstan. Methods Daily counts of deaths from hypertensive diseases (ICD-10 codes: I10-I15), ischemic heart disease (I20-I25) and cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69) among adults 18 years and older in Astana, Kazakhstan during warm periods (1 April – 30 September) in 2000-2001 and 2006-2010, were obtained from the City Registry Office. Associations between mortality and maximum apparent temperature (average for lags 0-3) during the warm period were studied using first order autoregressive Poisson regression models controlling for wind speed and effects of month, year, weekends and holidays. Analyses were stratified by gender. Results An inverse association between the temperature and deaths from hypertensive diseases was found among women, but not men: an increase in temperature by 1°C was associated with a decrease in the daily number of deaths by 3.1% (95% CI: 0.2-6.1). No associations between temperature and deaths from ischemic health disease for were found. Deaths from cerebrovascular diseases were positively associated with the temperature only among women: an increase in temperature by 1°C was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths by 1.9% (95% CI: 0.4-3.5). Conclusions The effects of temperature were limited to women. While higher temperatures were associated with higher mortality for cerebrovascular diseases, an inverse association was observed for hypertensive diseases. Factors behind this association warrant further research with further going aim to develop strategies to mitigate the effects on climate change on population health. Key message While higher temperatures were associated with higher mortality for cerebrovascular diseases, an inverse association was observed for hypertensive diseases.