The Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Growth Rate of New COVID-19 Cases: Evidence From Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Simeon Nanovsky, Zhanibek Arynov, Aigul Alzhanova

2021

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DOI 10.21203/rs.3.rs-535065/v1
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Abstract Background: This article explores the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs also know as quarantine restrictions) on the reduction of the growth rate in new COVID-19 cases in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. It turns out that empirically NPIs gradually reduce the growth rate of new cases. This is theoretically backed by an epidemic growth model shown in the paper. Once this growth rate turns negative, it is only then that the actual levels of new cases begin to fall.Methods: The growth rate of new cases is regressed on NPIs. The contribution of NPIs is estimated via ordinary least squares. The paper is unique in that it uses the growth rate as the main dependent variable. Results: The regression results are able determine the impact of particular NPIs on the growth rate of new cases. In turns out that all types of NPIs are effective in reducing the growth rate. Conclusions: Interesting enough, comparing the results for the two countries, it appears that in the summer the partial-lockdown in Kyrgyzstan was just as effective as the full lockdown in Kazakhstan at reducing the growth rate. Therefore as a policy recommendation, and to avoid the economic impact of a full lockdown, these countries should stick with partial lockdowns. Lastly, a conservative counterfactual scenario indicates that total cases for 2020 would be 50% to 100% higher had the countries not imposed NPIs.