Abstract
Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global public health threat. WHO determined Kazakhstan as one of 18 high-priority countries for TB elimination in Europe, with reported TB incidence >20 cases per 100,000 population. There is a lack of comprehensive reseach of TB epidemiology in the country. This study aims to estimate the prevalence, incidence, mortality rates and survival hazard ratios of TB in Kazakhstan, using large-scale administrative health data records in 2014-2019. Methods This is a population-wide retrospective study assessing 150 thousand TB (ICD10: A15-A19) patients’ incidence, prevalence and mortality. Demographic factors, diagnoses and comorbidities were analyzed. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis have been done. Results Out of 150 thousand all TB patients, 61 percent were male and 94 percent had respiratory TB. During 2014-2019, the TB incidence, prevalence and mortality per 100K population declined (227-15.2), doubled (325.3-746.6) and increased (8.4-15.2), respectively. Age-specific TB incidence was lowest for 0-10 y.o., highest for 20 y.o. Being an old person, male, urban resident, retired, with HIV and diabetes was significantly associated with lower survival compared to a young, female, rural resident, employed, with no comorbidities. Conclusions This was the largest TB study in Kazakhstan, presenting the country’s TB by demographic groups, incidence, prevalence, mortality trends, and risk factors against survival. Key messages • During 2014-2019, the TB incidence, prevalence and mortality per 100K population declined (227-15.2), doubled (325.3-746.6) and increased (8.4-15.2), respectively. • Being an old person, male, urban resident, retired, with HIV and diabetes was significantly associated with lower survival compared to a young, female, rural resident, employed, with no comorbidities.