Air temperature and suicides in Astana, Kazakhstan: a time-series analysis

A M Grjibovski, Gulmira Kozhakhmetova, Nassikhat Nurgaliyeva, Bibigul Adilbekova, A Kosbayeva, Bettina Menne

European Journal of Public Health, 2013

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DOI 10.1093/eurpub/ckt124.052
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Background Seasonal variations in the incidence of suicide have been observed in many industrialized countries. Moreover, it is known that the incidence of suicide increase during both economic crises and periods of rapid economic growth. At the same time, the evidence on the associations between air temperature and suicide in rapidly developing settings is scarce. Objectives To study associations between four different indicators of air temperature and suicide daily counts in Astana – the fast growing capital of Kazakhstan. Methods Daily counts of suicides (ICD-10 codes: X60-X84) for the population of Astana, Kazakhstan, during 2006-2010 were obtained from the City Registry Office. Associations between the number of calls and mean, mean apparent, maximum and maximum apparent temperatures were studied using negative binomial regression models controlling for effects of month, year, weekends and holidays. In addition, we assessed associations between suicide counts and barometric pressure and humidity. Results Altogether, there were 685 suicides in Astana during the study period. A clear seasonal pattern with the peak during the spring and summer moths was observed. In crude analyses, significant associations between suicide counts and all temperatures as well as barometric pressure and humidity were observed. After adjustment for potential confounders, only air temperatures remained significantly associated with the outcome. An increase in mean temperature by 1°C was associated with an increase by 1.53% in suicide counts (95% CI: 0.15-2.92). Similar results were obtained for mean apparent temperature (2.01%, 95% CI: 0.39-3.62) and maximum apparent temperature (1.11%, 95% CI: 0.03-2.19). Conclusions The results suggest a linear relationship between temperature and daily suicide counts across the whole spectrum of temperatures with no thresholds in the city of Astana, Kazakhstan. Factors behind this association warrant further research with further going aim to develop mitigation strategies in the period of climate change. Key message The results suggest a linear relationship between temperature and daily suicide counts across the whole spectrum of temperatures with no thresholds in the city of Astana, Kazakhstan.