Forecasting of GHG Emissions from Energy and Industrial Sectors of Kazakhstan and Assessment of Mitigation Scenarios with High Share of Renewables

Nurkhat K. Zhakiyev, Korhan Kayisli, Alman Kushekkaliyev, Nadezhda Sagadatova, Andrii Biloshchytskyi, Nurkhat Zhakiyev

2025

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)

DOI 10.20508/ijrer.v15i2.15837.g9052

Data confidence 85 high

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Abstract

This study leverages the TIMES-KAZ model and linear regression techniques to explore strategies for reducing emissions from energy and industrial sectors by integration more renewables. The scenario analysis of Kazakhstan's energy sector reveals a progressive shift towards cleaner energy sources, with increased investments in renewables, particularly in the Current Measures (CM) and Current and Additional Measures (CAM) scenarios. Despite this, complexities arise in emission patterns, particularly within the heat production sector, highlighting the need for a balanced energy transition approach. The analysis of Kazakhstan’s industrial sector indicates a rising trend in GHG emissions, driven primarily by growth in metallurgy and mineral industries with consideration green hydrogen. The CAM scenario integrate advanced low-carbon technologies like hydrogen-based steel production, integration of renewables and electric arc furnaces, demonstrates the potential to cut emissions by half by 2035.