Forecasting currency inflation for inflation risk analysis of financial investment

2021

Full text Open access: Hybrid Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.51301/vest.su.2021.i3.21
Data confidence 70 medium
How this score is calculated

It is built from checkable properties of the record itself: whether the article has a DOI, how many independent sources confirmed its data, whether the required fields are filled in, and how recent the latest confirmation is. Disagreement between sources and a missing identifier lower it. A value of 80 or above means the record was published without further checking; 60 to 79 means it is published at reduced confidence, with a manual check advisable. A record verified by an editor by hand is never pushed below 90 by a recalculation. This scores our data about the article, not the article itself.

Abstract

The need for improving methods of financial investment analysis in order to reduce risks leads researchers to exploit the modern scientific advancements especially in IT domain. Financial analytics require the ability to model and forecast future value of investigated financial parameters like currency inflation. In this paper, we analyzed the monthly inflation rate of Kazakhstan currency, using historical data from 1995 to 2020 by applying wide spread statistical and machine learning methods. The results show that the proposed research approach generates a solid forecasting accuracy and can be proposed to be included into financial investment analysis methods that could reduce inflation risk.