The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm: Volume 4

Henry Lik‐Yuen Chan, Chien‐Jen Chen, Ogu Omede, Jehad AlQamish, Khalid Al Naamani, Abate Bane, Seok S. Tan, Marieta Simonova, I. Cardenas, Moutaz F. M. Derbala

90 more authors

O. Akin, Richard Odame Phillips, M. K. Abdelmageed, Maheeba Abdulla, Danjuma Kamlen ADDA, A. Al Baqali, Nazeeh Al Dweik, Khalid Al Ejji, Imad Ghazzawi, S. Al Kaabi, M. Al Sadadi, Jameela Alsalman, M. AlBadri, Said A. Al‐Busafi, Hamad Eid Al‐Romaihi, William Ampofo, Krasimir Antonov, Chukwuma Anyaike, F. Arome, Sarah Blach, M. M. Borodo, S. Brandon, Bisi Bright, M. T. Butt, Ding‐Shinn Chen, Pei‐Jer Chen, Rong‐Nan Chien, Wan‐Long Chuang, Diego Cuellar, A. A. Elbardiny, Chris R. Estes, Elmoubasher Farag, James Fung, Ivane Gamkrelidze, V. Garcia, J Genov, Z. Ghandour, M. Ghuloom, B. Gomez, Jessie Gunter, J. Habeeb, O. Hajelssedig, Waseem Hamoudi, Sayed M. Himatt, Irena Hrstić, Ching‐Chih Hu, Chung‐Feng Huang, Yee Tak Hui, Rohani Jahis, Deian Jelev, Anil K John, Kulpash Kaliaskarova, Yasser Medhat Kamel, Jia‐Horng Kao, Jawad Khamis, Hamida Khattabi, Ibtissam Khoudri, Akzhan Konysbekova, Iskren Andreev Kotzev, Moon Sing Lai, Wenyu Lao, Jennifer E. Layden, M.-H. Lee, Olufunmilayo Adenike Lesi, M. Li, Acy Lo, Ching Kong Loo, Boris Lukšić, Abderrahmane Maaroufi, Abraham O. Malu, Lyudmila Mateva, Rumiana G. Mitova, Rosmawati Binti Mohamed, Miro Morović, K. Murphy, B. Mustapha, Nersesov Alexander Vitalevich, Evelyn Ngige, Richard Njouom, Oudou Njoya, Diana Nonković, Solomon Obekpa, Stephen Oguche, Eucharia Okolo, Casimir Erhunmwun Omuemu, Pascale Ondoa, Ohene Opare‐Sem, Shirley Owusu‐Ofori, Yuriy Prokopenko, Homie A. Razavi

2017

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DOI 10.1111/jvh.12760
Data confidence 85 high
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Abstract

Summary Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV‐related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high‐treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV‐related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV‐related morbidity and mortality.