Forecasting Production of Natural Rubber in India

Deepak Chawla, Vidhu Shekhar Jha

2009

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DOI 10.1177/0971890720090107
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

In this paper an attempt is made to forecast the production of natural rubber in India by using monthly data for the period from January 1991 to December 2005. The forecasts are obtained up to December 2008 using Linear Trend Equation, Semi-log Trend Equation, Holt’s Method, Winter’s Method and ARIMA Model. The accuracy of forecast obtained through various methods is compared with the monthly actual production data of natural rubber for the period from January 2006 to March 2007, the last month for which actual production data were available. This period is also used as a hold-out sample. It is found that Winter’s method gives the best result followed by Holt’s method and Semi-log trend equation. The MAPE of Winter’s, Holt’s method, and Semi-log trend equation are 8.01 per cent, 8.09 per cent and 8.12 per cent respectively. It is therefore suggested that Winter’s method could be used for forecasting the natural rubber production in India. The forecasting method for production of natural rubber in India, as shown in this paper, can be a very useful tool for the Indian rubber industry professionals and policy makers in India.