Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Aizhan Yesmagambetova, Stanislav V. Kazakov, Aleksey V. Burdakov, Kenes S. Ospanov, Kakimzhan K. Kyraubaev, Erlan B. Sansyzbaev, Veronika P. Sadovskaya, Andrey O. Ukharov

2014

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)

DOI 10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5019

Data confidence 70 medium

How this score is calculated

It is built from checkable properties of the record itself: whether the article has a DOI, how many independent sources confirmed its data, whether the required fields are filled in, and how recent the latest confirmation is. Disagreement between sources and a missing identifier lower it. A value of 80 or above means the record was published without further checking; 60 to 79 means it is published at reduced confidence, with a manual check advisable. A record verified by an editor by hand is never pushed below 90 by a recalculation. This scores our data about the article, not the article itself.

Abstract

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.