Latent fluctuation periods and long-term forecasting of the level of Markakol lake

Азамат Сансызбаевич Мадибеков, A. V. Babkin, Ainur Musakulkyzy, А. В. Чередниченко

2018

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DOI 10.1088/1755-1315/107/1/012035

Data confidence 70 medium

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Abstract

The analysis of time series of the level of Markakol Lake by the method of "Periodicities" reveals in its variations the harmonics with the periods of 12 and 14 years, respectively. The verification forecasts of the lake level by the trend tendency and by its combination with these sinusoids were computed with the lead time of 5 and 10 years. The estimation of the forecast results by the new independent data permitted to conclude that forecasts by the combination of the sinusoids and trend tendency are better than by the trend tendency only. They are no worse than the mean value prediction.