Coordination of bilateral and multilateral cooperation in Central Asia under conditions of polycrisis

Yelena IZTELEUOVA

2026

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.3389/fpos.2026.1814186
Data confidence 70 medium
How this score is calculated

It is built from checkable properties of the record itself: whether the article has a DOI, how many independent sources confirmed its data, whether the required fields are filled in, and how recent the latest confirmation is. Disagreement between sources and a missing identifier lower it. A value of 80 or above means the record was published without further checking; 60 to 79 means it is published at reduced confidence, with a manual check advisable. A record verified by an editor by hand is never pushed below 90 by a recalculation. This scores our data about the article, not the article itself.

Abstract

Regional cooperation in Central Asia is characterized by divergent national preferences and overlapping institutional mandates that generate coordination challenges rather than systemic failure. This decentralized cooperation architecture unfolds in a broader context of polycrisis, understood as the interaction of overlapping geopolitical, economic and security pressures shaping regional governance dynamics. The post-2016 period, marked by Uzbekistan’s political transition and Kazakhstan’s renewed engagement, provides an opportunity to analyze how bilateral and multilateral projects interact to shape regional cooperation outcomes. The study situates this interaction within broader debates on regionalism and region-building under systemic stress. This study aims to examine how bilateral and multilateral cooperation formats interact in Central Asia and to identify the internal barriers and external drivers shaping coordination, with focus on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Study used qualitative research design and draws on 28 semi-structured expert interviews with diplomats, civil servants, policy analysts and experts from regional organizations, conducted between June and December 2025. Data was analyzed via thematic and comparative analysis. Findings show that internal barriers such as institutional competition, bureaucratic inertia, and asymmetries of national interests constrain regional coordination, while external actors shape both opportunities and strategic choices. Kazakhstan pursues regional coordination primarily through institutionalized multilateral frameworks, whereas Uzbekistan relies more heavily on pragmatic bilateral cooperation while participating selectively in multilateral institutions. The findings further demonstrate that bilateral cooperation can accelerate problem-solving and build trust, but without deliberate coordination it may weaken the coherence of regional multilateral frameworks. Scientifically, the study contributes to debates on regionalism in the age of polycrisis via showing how bilateralism can both support and constrain multilateral coordination. Practically, it offers targeted policy recommendations for governments and organizations to improve regional cooperation.