Abstract
Technological breakthroughs in the rapidly developing aviation industry have exacerbated the problems with associated assessing the competencies and systems-thinking skills of personnel. Traditional assessment methods based on static models and measuring previously acquired knowledge are losing relevance because they fail to capture critical indices such as flexible thinking, adaptability, and a willingness to continuously learn. Herein, a comprehensive method for assessing the competencies and systems-thinking skills of civil aviation personnel was developed. Item response theory was applied to survey data from the personnel of an airport in Kazakhstan to develop latent competency indices. The relationships between indices were considered through a dynamic Bayesian network and their dynamics were predicted up to 2030 across three development scenarios. The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method integrated the individual indices into a single metric the human capital readiness index that quantitatively assessed competencies and systems-thinking skills in the context of rapid technological changes. The results demonstrated the ability of the proposed method to objectively assess the potential of civil aviation personnel in a dynamic and technology-intensive environment, confirming the need to rethink traditional approaches to personnel assessment. The proposed method is expected to facilitate the development of targeted training and retraining programs as well as the establishment of qualification standards for civil aviation personnel.