Abstract
Global climate change creates significant risks for food security in countries with vulnerable agro-ecological systems, including the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study aims to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the impact of key climate factors—average annual temperature and precipitation—on grain crop productivity at the regional level during the period 2015–2024. Using fixed-effects panel regression modeling and scenario forecasting, the research identifies a negative relationship between rising temperatures and agricultural yields, as well as a positive correlation between increased precipitation and productivity. The results highlight the high climate sensitivity of southern and western regions, where the combination of drought, soil degradation, and water scarcity intensifies threats to food system stability. A short-term forecast to 2029 indicates a gradual decline in crop yields under an inertial development scenario, contrasted with a potential increase in productivity if adaptive measures are implemented—modernization of irrigation infrastructure, adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties, digital monitoring tools, and optimization of crop structures. The findings emphasize the necessity of integrating climate risk assessments into Kazakhstan’s national agricultural strategy and developing regionally differentiated adaptation policies. These results provide a scientific basis for strengthening food security management, guiding strategic planning, and mitigating economic losses associated with accelerating climate change.