Abstract
Food security is the provision of the population with the necessary quantity of high-quality, safe, and affordable food products in accordance with individual needs on a long-term basis. The objective is to study the prospects for balanced supply of agricultural products in the republic, expressed through three levels: availability, accessibility, and stability. Methods include the study of scientific publications by domestic and foreign authors, the use of data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Expert assessment, comparative and economic-statistical analysis made it possible to identify the main trends and changes in issues of food sustainability. Econometric modeling reflects the influence of three factors affecting food supply from the perspective of its measurement dimensions. Results – the country demonstrates strong positions in import substitution of poultry meat and apples; however, some indica tors for basic food products show high volatility ranging from 31% to 51%. The developed economic forecasting model revealed a number of significant indicators. The coefficient of physical accessibility amounted to 0.8 (80% of fluctuations under the influence of factors), for price accessibility – 0.6, system equilibrium – 0.4. Conclusions – food security is directly related to the increase in arable land area and the growth of purchasing power parity. Economic accessibility depends on the land fund of the agricultural sector. The reliability of the functioning of the food market mechanism in creases with the strengthening of investment activity in the agro-industrial complex and the expansion of agricultural land. Nevertheless, the comparability of real incomes acts as a stabilizer, minimizing sharp changes in calorie consumption among rural residents.