Abstract
Relevance. Central Asia holds vast reserves of critical metals and minerals such as lithium, nickel, aluminum, copper, uranium, and rare earth elements, offering strong potential for integration into global value chains. However, its resource-dependent export model and institutional barriers hinder investment and industrial processing. Kazakhstan, with the region’s largest resource base, plays a key role in shaping its critical metals and minerals strategy. Objective. The study aims to develop an evidence-based strategic framework for Kazakhstan’s export policy in critical metals and minerals, taking into account other Central Asian countries. It relies on comparative analysis, institutional assessment, and scenario-based forecasting. Methods and Data. The methodology combines time-series analysis of export dynamics using data from international trade databases (UN Comtrade and ITC Trade Map), forecasting for 2025–2027, a comparative institutional analysis of the models of Australia, Chile, and Kazakhstan, as well as an evaluation of regulatory quality based on international indices and analytical sources. Results. Modeling indicates a steady rise in Central Asian exports to Europe and Asia but also highlights structural imbalances and institutional barriers that hinder a transition from a resource-based model to sustainable development. Using Kazakhstan as a case study, the study proposes a framework emphasizing deeper processing, export diversification, and integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. Conclusions. Central Asia holds strong potential to contribute to the global energy transition, with Kazakhstan best positioned to lead a long-term export strategy. The proposed framework combines national and regional perspectives to foster industrialization, attract investment, and strengthen the region’s role in the global economy.