Abstract
Despite ongoing efforts to modernize the higher education sector in Kazakhstan, the integration of strategic management and the effective allocation of public investment continue to pose significant challenges. This study aims to assess the relationship between public investment in higher education, enrollment dynamics, and innovation activity measured through the share of innovative organizations. Official statistical data for 2004–2024 were obtained from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan and the World Bank. The study employs econometric analysis methods, including the evaluation of multiple linear regression models, vector autoregressive models, and Granger causality tests. According to the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression results, the impact of public investment in higher education on the number of students was not statistically significant (β = –0.00035; p = 0.507), suggesting insufficient targeting of funding and inefficient channels of distribution of funds. However, the number of higher education institutions shows a statistically significant positive effect on enrollment (β = 8048.5; p = 0.002), indicating that institutional infrastructure and territorial accessibility play a more significant role in expanding access to higher education than the overall level of funding. In addition, the constructed regression model is characterized by a high explanatory power (R2 = 0.8665), which indicates the estimates’ reliability and the correctness of the choice of explanatory factors. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating investment policy in higher education with the goals of innovative development. AcknowledgmentsThis paper has been funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK (Grant “Modernization of the quality assurance system of higher education in Kazakhstan based on digitalization: development of approaches, mechanisms and information base” BR24992974).