Abstract
The aim is to determine the level of food self-sufficiency of the country in the conditions of import substitution. In developing the theoretical section of the work universal scientific methods - analysis and synthesis, comparison, logical. Collection and processing of secondary information, based on the use of official data of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the results of the Global Food Security Index 2022. Results - theoretical aspects of the food situation and issues of accessibility of quality products for the population were studied, the role of the agrarian sector in the economy of Kazakhstan was shown and the importance of the agrarian sector in the economy of Kazakhstan was substantiated. Calculated and analyzed such indicators as the degree of self-sufficiency of consumption products in the country, output of various types of products per capita, average consumer spending on food, the dynamics of exports and imports of food products. The dependence on imports of the main types of foodstuffs is considered and the forecast of production of products of the agrarian sphere with regard to ensuring food independence is presented. Three forecast scenarios are proposed: basic, optimistic and pessimistic. Conclusions - it is revealed that food stability implies a sufficient level of development of the agro-industrial complex, at which the domestic demand for food products can be largely satisfied by the production of own food products. The key task of agrarian policy - to achieve selfsufficiency in the country of at least 80% of the total demand is outlined. Import substitution contributes to the implementation of large-scale and deep modernization of the domestic agro-industrial complex, which requires the use of innovative technologies.