Analysis of the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and development of the transport industry in Kazakhstan

Artur Bolganbayev, Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev

2020

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DOI 10.31489/2020ec3/14-24
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Object: Logistics became a very crucial business in many countries. Meanwhile, the main transport routes connecting the continents of Asia and Europe pass through the territory of Kazakhstan. In this sense, Kazakhstan's geographical location is of commercial importance. Logistics amount to the 20% to 30% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in developed countries. This study aims to evaluate the effect of the changes in gross domestic product (GDP) on the developments in the transportation sector by analyzing the relation between the GDP and major indicators of the transportation sector.Methods: The data obtained from this study is evaluated using time series analysis and regression analysis methods.Findings: The transportation system is an important part of the infrastructure of Kazakhstan and has a great impact on the level of development of the country's economy. Therefore, analyzing these developments is very important both for understanding the development of the transport sector and for predicting the future of the sector. In this study, the relationship between the variables considered as the main indicator in the transportation sector and the gross national product was analyzed and the effect of the development in the gross national product on the developments in the transportation sector was determined.Conclusions:H1a: The effect of GDP on FRTRANS is explained with the linear regression model; H1b: The effect of GDP on FRTTRANS is explained with the linear regression model; H1c: The effect of GDP on PSCTRANS is explained with the linear regression model; H1d: The effect of GDP on PSCTTRANS is explained with the linear regression model; H1e: The effect of GDP on FT_RAIL can’t be explained with the linear regression model; H1f: The effect of GDP on PT_RAIL can’t be explained with the linear regression model.