Abstract
Under China's One Belt, One Road initiative, Central Asia plays a pivotal role in linking Europe and East Asia, with Beijing initially prioritizing economic interests. However, there is still no comprehensive assessment of how China's growing security role in the region reshapes existing security arrangements and what forms future cooperation might take. This study addresses that problem by examining the specific dimensions of China-Central Asia security cooperation, identifying its key components and projecting future scenarios. Using systematic analysis, we characterize cooperation features, map sectors of collaboration, assess strengths and challenges, and propose strategic pathways. Our findings highlight the multidimensional nature of security cooperation, ranging from counterterrorism and border management to intelligence sharing and joint exercises, while pinpointing drivers of stability such as shared threat perceptions and infrastructure investments. We also reveal obstacles, including uneven resource allocation, sovereignty concerns, and regional rivalries. Building on these insights, we outline three scenarios for deepening cooperation: a business-as-usual trajectory, a security-centric framework, and a holistic model that integrates economic, environmental, and social dimensions. The study's outcomes are significant for understanding the evolving regional security architecture, and they offer practical guidance for historians who explore peace strategies, diplomats who negotiate security arrangements, and economists who assess the impact of policy decisions on regional financial systems.