Abstract
This research studies the operational effectiveness of the tourism industry in the Caspian regions of Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan during the 2003–2022 period, with a particular emphasis on the impact of the recent crises (COVID-19, Ukrainian war). To this end, the paper uses the data envelopment analysis meta-frontier model, the Simar and Wilson regression and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting technique. The findings indicate significant disparities in tourism regional performance, with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan particularly affected by the pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Forecasts indicate potential growth in the tourism industry of the Republic of Kalmykia, Russia, contingent on specific conditions.