Abstract
The rapid development of digital manufacturing and robotic systems places increased demands on the accuracy and reliability of industrial manipulators. Traditional time-based reliability metrics do not reflect the robot’s ability to consistently achieve the desired position and orientation within process tolerances or the probability of the end-effector falling into a given area of permissible poses. The proposed framework integrates a deterministic kinematic model, a stochastic representation of Denavit–Hartenberg parameters and control variables, analytical methods for estimating probabilities, and numerical modeling using the Monte Carlo method. The methodology has been tested on the widely used industrial robot FANUC LR Mate 200iD/7L. The results demonstrate a significant dependence of geometric reliability on the kinematic configuration of the manipulator, with maximum reliability in compact poses and a significant reduction in elongated configurations near singularities. Comprehensive validation was carried out, including numerical experiments on a planar prototype, high-precision physical measurements on a real robot and analysis of operational data, which confirmed the adequacy of the proposed model. The developed approach provides a powerful tool for designing, optimizing and predicting the reliability of robotic cells in high-precision automation environments.