A Particle-Based COVID-19 Simulator With Contact Tracing and Testing

Askat Kuzdeuov, Aknur Karabay, Daulet Baimukashev, Bauyrzhan Ibragimov, Hüseyin Atakan Varol

2021

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.1109/ojemb.2021.3064506
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Abstract Goal The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as the most severe public health crisis in over a century. As of January 2021, there are more than 100 million cases and 2.1 million deaths. For informed decision making, reliable statistical data and capable simulation tools are needed. Our goal is to develop an epidemic simulator that can model the effects of random population testing and contact tracing. Methods Our simulator models individuals as particles with the position, velocity, and epidemic status states on a 2D map and runs an SEIR epidemic model with contact tracing and testing modules. The simulator is available on GitHub under the MIT license. Results The results show that the synergistic use of contact tracing and massive testing is effective in suppressing the epidemic (the number of deaths was reduced by 72%). Conclusions The Particle-based COVID-19 simulator enables the modeling of intervention measures, random testing, and contact tracing, for epidemic mitigation and suppression. Impact Statement Our particle-based epidemic simulator, calibrated with COVID-19 data, models each individual as a unique particle with a location, velocity, and epidemic state, enabling the consideration of contact tracing and testing measures.