Abstract
This study estimated the basic reproductive ratio of rabies at the population level in wild animals (foxes), farm animals (cattle, camels, horses, sheep) and what we classified as domestic animals (cats, dogs) in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK). It also aimed at forecasting the possible number of new outbreaks in case of emergence of the disease in new territories. We considered cases of rabies in animals in RK from 2010 to 2013, recorded by regional veterinary services. Statistically significant space-time clusters of outbreaks in three subpopulations were detected by means of Kulldorff Scan statistics. Theoretical curves were then fitted to epidemiological data within each cluster assuming exponential initial growth, which was followed up by calculation of the basic reproductive ratio R0. For farm animals, the value of R0 was 1.62 (1.11-2.26) and for wild animals 1.84 (1.08- 3.13), while it was close to 1 for domestic animals. Using the values obtained, an initial phase of possible epidemic was simulated in order to predict the expected number of secondary cases if the disease were introduced into a new area. The possible number of new cases for 20 weeks was estimated at 5 (1-16) for farm animals, 17 (1-113) for wild animals and about 1 in the category of domestic animals. These results have been used to produce set of recommendations for organising of preventive and contra-epizootic measures against rabies expected to be applied by state veterinarian services.