Abstract
Repeated sowing of winter cereals represents one of the adaptive dryland approaches to make more sustainable the rainfed agriculture activities in southern Kazakhstan. This study conducted a multi-year reconstruction of crop transitions using Sentinel-2 imagery for 2018–2025, based on the combined analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) temporal profiles and the Plowed Land Index (PLI), enabling the creation of a field-level harmonized classification set. The transition “spring crop → winter crop” was used as a formal indicator of repeated winter sowing, from which annual repeat layers and an integrated metric, the R-index, were derived. The results revealed a pronounced spatial concentration of repeated sowing in foothill landscapes, where terrain heterogeneity and locally elevated moisture availability promote the recurrent return of winter cereals. Comparison of NDVI composites for the peak spring biomass period (1–20 May) showed a systematic decline in NDVI with increasing R-index, indicating the cumulative effect of repeated soil exploitation and the sensitivity of winter crops to climatic constraints. Precipitation analysis for 2017–2024 confirmed the strong influence of autumn moisture conditions on repetition phases, particularly in years with extreme rainfall anomalies. These findings demonstrate the importance of integrating multi-year satellite observations with climatic indicators for monitoring the resilience of agricultural systems. The identified patterns highlight the necessity of implementing nature-based solutions, including contour–strip land management and the development of protective shelterbelts, to enhance soil moisture retention and improve the stability of regional agricultural landscapes.