The Incidence, Mortality, and Survival Trends of Pancreatic Cancer in Kazakhstan: Data from the National Electronic Registry of Oncological Patients (2014–2023)

Aigerim Biniyazova, Ruslan Akhmedullin, Ayana Ablayeva, Altynay Beyembetova, Diyora Abdukhakimova, Abzal Zhumabekov, Temirgali Aimyshev, Gulnur Zhakhina, Temirlan Seyil, Yuliya M. Semenova

1 more author

Abduzhappar Gaipov

2025

Data confidence 70 medium

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Abstract

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) has an extremely poor prognosis and is growing worldwide. In Kazakhstan, it is among the five leading causes of cancer death. However, local epidemiological studies of PC are scarce. A retrospective population-based study was conducted to investigate the PC incidence, mortality, and survival in Kazakhstan, using data from the Electronic Registry of Oncological Patients for the period 2014–2023. Methods: Incidence, prevalence, and crude mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 population. The all-cause mortality rate per 1000 person-years (PY) was obtained based on socio-demographic and medical characteristics and for different regions. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression models. Results: A total of 11,934 cases were analyzed. The annual incidence rate significantly increased from 5.9 to 6.9 per 100,000. The mortality rate per 100,000 also increased from 4 to 6. The highest incidence was observed in the 60–74 age group (49.2%), with an equal sex distribution. The mortality rate was the highest in patients aged 75 and older. Northern and central regions had the highest incidence rates as of 2023. Atyrau, West Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and Abay had the highest mortality rates per 1000 PY. The five-year survival rate was 10.9%. An older age, a male sex, advanced cancer stages, and a Russian ethnicity significantly increased the risk of death. Conclusions: PC represents a significant healthcare problem in Kazakhstan, with late diagnosis and poor survival being the main challenges. This study highlights the need to improve the timely detection of PC and address the identified disparities.