Dependence of Avalanche Risk on Slope Insolation Level and Albedo

Natalya Denissova, Serik Nurakynov, Olga Petrova, Gulzhan Daumova, Daniker Chepashev, M.A. Alpysbay, Ruslan Chettykbayev

2025

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.3390/atmos16050556
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

The formation of avalanche hazards in mountainous regions is largely influenced by slope insolation and albedo. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of how solar radiation, surface reflectivity (albedo), temperature, and snow cover affect avalanche formation depending on slope aspect (north-, south-, east-, and west-facing). This study is based on remote sensing data from MODIS, ERA5-Land, CHIRPS, and a digital terrain model for the winter periods from 2000 to 2024. The results show that north-facing slopes have higher albedo values (up to 0.95) and greater snow cover stability (30–50%), which contributes to increased avalanche risk, especially at temperatures above −5 °C. South-facing slopes are characterized by lower albedo values (around 0.20–0.40) and more intense snowmelt, which reduces the likelihood of avalanches. Regression analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between snow depth and avalanche risk (r = 0.87), as well as a moderate negative correlation between temperature and snow cover stability (r = −0.25). The influence of albedo on avalanche risk was found to be indirect, acting through its impact on the surface energy balance. The resulting avalanche risk map demonstrated high accuracy (overall agreement: 86%; Kappa coefficient: 0.72), highlighting the effectiveness of an integrated approach based on geophysical and climatic parameters. The data obtained can be used to support avalanche safety management and slope assessment in the context of climate change.