DIGITAL FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN KAZAKHSTAN: ASSESSING THE EFFICIENCY OF FINANCIAL PRODUCT USE AND ASSOCIATED RISKS

D. B. Kussainova, Saule Intykbayeva, F. Guliyev

2026

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DOI 10.32014/2026.2518-1467.1301
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

The digitalisation of the financial sector has significantly changed the content of financial inclusion: having a bank account or a payment card is no longer a sufficient criterion for the actual inclusion of the population in the financial system. The study aims to assess the dynamics of digital financial inclusion in Kazakhstan, determine the effectiveness of digital financial products, and identify the risks associated with expanding digital channels for providing financial services. The information base consists of data from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, the Global Findex Database 2025, and OECD data for 2015–2025. For the regional analysis, data from 17 regions and three cities of republican significance for 2025 were used. The methodology combines dynamic and comparative analysis, the construction of the author’s Digital Financial Inclusion Index (DFII), an assessment of the efficiency of using financial products, k‑means clustering, and an exploratory regression model. In 2025, the number of non‑cash transactions using cards issued by Kazakhstani issuers reached 13.99 billion, and their volume amounted to 188.41 trillion tenge. Non-cash transactions accounted for 98.3% of the quantity and 87.2% of the volume of all card transactions. At the same time, pronounced territorial heterogeneity persists. The DFII calculation showed values ranging from 25.02 to 77.60 points. Cluster analysis revealed four types of regional models of digital financial inclusion. It is also clear that high levels of digital use of financial services do not eliminate risks: in 2025, loans to the population grew to 24.8 trillion tenge, consumer loans to 16.7 trillion tenge, and the Anti‑Fraud Centre registered 80,871 incidents involving transactions with signs of fraud. The results confirm the need to move from a policy of quantitative expansion of access to financial services to a model of “effective and safe financial inclusion” that takes into account the quality of product use, debt sustainability, digital literacy, and consumer protection.