Abstract
The reliability assessment of wind power plants founded on raft foundations is highly relevant due to the rapid growth of wind energy projects. The aim of this study is to develop a scientifically substantiated methodology for the geotechnical and probabilistic reliability assessment of wind power plants (WPPs) on raft foundations, considering the interaction within the “soil-foundation slab-wind turbine tower” system, the variability of soil physical and mechanical properties, and the stochastic nature of wind loads. The results of geotechnical analyses performed using the finite element method in MIDAS GTS NX confirm that the gravity-type monolithic foundation satisfies the deformation and bearing capacity criteria. Probabilistic modelling methods enabled the quantitative evaluation of the reliability index β and probability of failure Pf of the raft foundation, considering the actual variability of soil properties, and allowed the safety margins in terms of structural strength and stability to be assessed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of an integrated probabilistic-geotechnical approach for assessing the reliability of wind power plants on raft foundations while accounting for the stochastic variability of soil physical and mechanical properties, distinguishing the proposed methodology from conventional deterministic design approaches. The practical significance of the study lies in the direct applicability of the developed methodology to the design, construction, and operation of wind power plants, thereby improving the safety, economic efficiency, and durability of wind energy infrastructure.