Abstract
The article examines the transformation of U.S.-China relations during the first several months of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, from January 2025 to August 2026. The object of the study is the bilateral relations between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China as a central nexus of contemporary world politics, while the subject is the logic of the transition from the tariff escalation of spring 2025 to the ‘limited stabilisation’ consolidated by the leaders’ summit in Busan in October 2025 and D. Trump’s visit to Beijing in May 2026. The relevance of the study is associated with the accelerated succession of phases of rivalry – from systemic confrontation to tactical normalisation and back to targeted restrictions – and with the need to conceptualise these developments for the states of Central Asia. The analysis is structured around several interconnected dimensions: economic, diplomatic, technological, military-strategic and domestic political, while also taking into account Beijing’s response strategy. The theoretical framework of the study is formed by a comparison of structural realism, liberalism and constructivism, which makes it possible to identify both the persistence of structural rivalry between the two powers and its new forms – the selective securitisation of economic ties, targeted export controls in the field of semiconductors and critical minerals, as well as the personal diplomacy of the two leaders. The most likely trajectory of developments in 2026-2028 remains a scenario of strategic pause, during which the United States and the PRC strengthen their respective positions ahead of a possible new round of escalation. The findings of the study are of interest for the formulation of a balanced multi-vector foreign policy by the states of Central Asia, including the Republic of Kazakhstan.