Suicide mortality in Kazakhstan from 2012 to 2024: temporal trends, demographic inequalities, and regional variation

Alibek Kossumov, Tolkyn Zhakupova, Nazgul Imambayeva, Tatyana Polyakova, Gulshat Dalibayeva, Bagyzhan Syzdykova, Artur Kovenskiy, Aidana M. Rakhmankulova, Elizaveta Vinogradova, Sundetgali Kalmakhanov

2 more authors

Samat Kozhakhmetov, Almagul R. Kushugulova

Frontiers in Public Health, 2026

Full text Open access: Gold Metadata (CSL-JSON)
DOI 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1972530
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Introduction Despite some recent declines, suicides remain a major public health issue in Kazakhstan, with rates persistently above global benchmarks. This study provides the first integrated characterization of temporal trends, demographic characteristics, and regional distribution of suicide mortality in Kazakhstan. Materials and methods This epidemiological analysis examined suicide mortality data over a 13-year period (2012–2024). Data were provided by the Republican State Enterprise “Forensic Examination Center of the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Kazakhstan” and the State Institution “Committee on Legal Statistics and Special Records of the Prosecutor General’s Office. Results Between 2012 and 2024, 46,546 suicides were registered in Kazakhstan. Absolute suicides decreased by 15.8% despite 19.3% population growth. By 2023–2024, SR = 17.8 (ASSR = 18.2) – more than 65% above the WHO global average. The male-to-female ratio was 3.8:1 (ASSRs: men 29.9, women 7.4). Among men, peaks occurred at 25–29 (SR = 38.6) and 45–54 (SR = 49.9); among women, the first peak was at 18–24 (SR = 10.6). Regional SRs ranged from 11.0 to 29.2 per 100,000. The aging index was the strongest demographic ecological correlate of regional SR ( r = 0.84, p ≤ 0.0001). Annual sunshine duration showed a significant inverse association with SR ( β = −0.814, 95% CI [−1.221; −0.407], p = 0.001) in the regional regression model, while average salary was not significant. Conclusion Regional demographic restructuring – particularly population aging concentrated in northern regions – is the primary structural correlate of regional suicide variability. Annual sunshine duration emerged as a significant ecological correlate in the regression model specifically testing environmental and economic factors. These findings provide an evidence base for targeted, region- and population-specific prevention measures.