Mountain Hazards in Central Asia: A Review of Climate and Cryospheric Risks

2026

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DOI 10.1007/978-3-032-29989-5_7
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Abstract This chapter explores hazards associated with the mountain cryosphere and a changing climate, including the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), debris flows triggered by GLOFs, intense precipitation or snowmelt, and avalanches and reviews the recent advances in understanding of the associated processes and trends. The abundance and total area of glacial lakes have been increasing in the region since the mid-twentieth century. The frequency of GLOFs and associated debris flows is analysed, revealing a peak in the 1970s–1980s, consistent with global trends and regional positive temperature anomalies. However, despite the ongoing expansion of glacial lakes, the frequency of GLOFs has not increased in recent years. Debris flows caused by heavy rainfall exhibit variability linked to precipitation patterns but are increasingly observed at higher elevations due to the rising incidence of liquid precipitation. Meteorological triggers and thresholds for debris flow and avalanche formation are examined, highlighting their spatial variability and underscoring the need for broader assessments and improved meteorological forecasts to enhance early warning systems. Methods of risk reduction and adaptation options are discussed, demonstrating the critical role of these measures in reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience among local communities.