Abstract
The system of social guarantees for workers engaged in harmful and dangerous working conditions remains an important element of social protection. The purpose of the study is to assess the distributional fairness of the current system of social guarantees in Kazakhstan, compare it with foreign models and determine the possibilities of transition from a list–based to a risk-based mechanism for providing guarantees. The research methods include comparative institutional and legal analysis, targeted content analysis of legislation, descriptive statistical analysis, as well as an assessment of the financial and incentive effects of the proposed reform. The initial data cover the legislation of 11 countries — six CIS countries (Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia) and five OECD countries (USA, Germany, Great Britain, France, Canada), as well as data from the form of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021-2025. The results showed that the number of employees receiving at least one social guarantee remained virtually unchanged, while the share of those covered by guarantees decreased from 41.54% to 38.75% (-2.79 percentage points). Employers' expenses increased from 167.9 to 341.9 billion tenge, that is, by 2.04 times in nominal terms and by 26.4% in real terms the expression. The proposed transition to the differentiation of guarantees according to the measured risk level and the contribution scale of 3-9% allows maintaining fiscal neutrality and at the same time creating an economic incentive for the employer to reduce occupational risk.