Abstract
This study examines technological growth in Kazakhstan, specifically the contributions and interactions of innovation, technology investment, and digitalization as core transmission channels. The study uses annual time-series data from 2000 to 2023, applying an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration analysis, a multivariate regression with interaction terms to assess synergistic effects, and policy scenario simulations to project growth outcomes under various policy priorities. The results indicate that there is a significant long-run cointegrating relationship and that a one-standard-deviation increase in the "modernization composite index" leads to an increase of 1.824 percentage points in the "economic growth rate." Digitalization is the most powerful channel (coefficient = 1.467), followed by innovation (1.105) and technology investment (0.842). The relationship between innovation and digitalization is marked by a significant positive interaction (interaction coefficient = 0.389, p = 0.039): the returns to innovation are higher when it is combined with digital platforms. The study offers policy-relevant results that illustrate the benefits of a strategy prioritizing the digitalization approach over the balanced allocation approach, namely, a cumulative growth result that is 5.42 percentage points greater. It provides an evidence-based framework that offers strategic guidance for resource allocation in transitional economies to maximize growth returns from technological modernization agendas.