Abstract
Purpose of the research to identify patterns in the evolution of social shocks during industrial revolutions, determine their specificity in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and develop scenarios for institutional adaptation of Kazakhstan's labor market until 2040. Methodology comprehensive approach including comparative-historical analysis of four industrial revolutions (1760–2025), institutional analysis of adaptation mechanisms considering international experience, and scenario modeling based on demographic forecasts from the Center for Labor Resources Development, data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2020–2024), and World Economic Forum reports. Originality/value of the research the concept of adaptation lag is proposed for the first time, demonstrating a fourfold reduction in institutional adaptation time (from 50–80 to 10–20 years), requiring transition from reactive to proactive strategies. A unique synchronization between Kazakhstan's demographic window (20252040) and the fourth revolution's adaptation lag has been identified, creating a critical time constraint for systemic reforms. Findings the evolution of social shocks from physical exploitation to cognitive marginalization has been established; specific challenges for Kazakhstan have been identified (platform precarity, regional polarization, IT specialists shortage, generational digital divide); three development scenarios (pessimistic, baseline, optimistic) with priority directions for complementary institutional reforms have been developed.