Abstract
This study examines the innovative development of the economic potential of rice farming enterprises in Kazakhstan’s Kyzylorda Region, where water scarcity, soil salinization, and technological lag increasingly limit sectoral competitiveness. The aim is to identify the institutional, technological, and resource-related factors that shape innovation adoption and to assess their relevance for farm sustainability and modernization. The empirical analysis is based on a semi-structured survey of rice producers and agribusiness representatives (n = 150), combined with descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ordinary least squares regression, comparative assessment, SWOT analysis, and forecast modeling for 2025–2030. The results show that innovation activity differs markedly across farm categories and is significantly associated with subsidies (β = 0.137; p = 0.004), training participation (β = 0.116; p = 0.016), and farm size (β = 0.084; p = 0.032), while the regression model explains 38.4% of variance. Large farms display substantially higher innovation activity than small farms. The main constraints are limited finance, outdated irrigation infrastructure, weak advisory support, and insufficient technological readiness. The novelty of the study lies in linking farm-level innovation adoption with institutional support, resource constraints, and forecast indicators. The proposed resource-innovation model offers a practical pathway for water-saving modernization, rice waste processing, cluster cooperation, and policy improvement in regional rice farming.