Abstract
The diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI), and of generative AI in particular, is reshaping the demand for labour and skills, and young people entering the labour market are the group most exposed to its opportunities and risks, with direct consequences for decent work, quality education and reduced inequalities. This study assesses the impact of AI and digital transformation on Kazakhstan's youth labour market, identifies the opportunities and risks they present, and determines directions for adapting youth human capital to changing labour market demands. The study combines a structured synthesis of empirical evidence published in 2023–2026, a content analysis of national strategic documents, and an economic-statistical analysis of national and regional employment data of the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan for 2020–2025, using growth rates, the regional differentiation coefficient, the coefficient of variation and the Gini coefficient. The results show that average employment rose from 8,966.9 thousand in 2022 to 9,298.2 thousand in 2025 (+3.69%) and the average unemployment rate fell from 4.90% to 4.60%. In contrast, the regional differentiation coefficient of employment rose from 9.89 to 11.74, the coefficient of variation from 44.31% to 49.12% and the Gini coefficient from 0.232 to 0.252. The findings suggest that the current phase of AI diffusion is accompanied by employment growth rather than contraction, that the effects of AI on youth are dual, combining the substitution of standardized cognitive tasks with the augmentation of inexperienced workers, and that these effects will unfold unevenly across regions with persistent, moderately widening disparities.