Abstract
The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between religion and secularity in contemporary Kazakhstani society from the perspective of differences in views among social groups, using political science, sociological, and mathematical modeling methods. The main purpose of the study is to examine society’s attitude toward religious integration within a secular state and to forecast possible social conflicts in the religious sphere. The paper considers the applicability of diffusion equations and the Langevin model for modeling and forecasting religious-secular tensions, while the process of mutual informational interaction among individuals through a communicative field is described from a mathematical perspective. Based on the analysis of phase portraits, a stability region characterizing a stable and conflict-free state of the social system is identified; an analytical solution to the resulting system of equations is proposed for the divergent type of diffusion. The views of various social groups in Kazakhstan, including rural and urban residents as well as representatives of younger and older generations, on the influence of religion on state policy are comparatively analyzed, and significant differences among them are identified. The methodological significance of game theory and mathematical modeling in contemporary conflict studies is particularly emphasized. It is demonstrated that the proposed models make it possible to monitor the dynamics of social distance and to prevent future conflicts. The results of the study are presented as a scientific and practical basis aimed at improving state policy in the religious sphere and strengthening social stability.