Abstract
There are fourteen special economic zones (SEZ) in Kazakhstan designed to drive industrial modernization, enhance economic competitiveness, and reduce regional disparities. However, the current regional programs lack indicators that enable an objective evaluation of their impact. This study aims to measure the effect of SEZs on regional socio-economic development using multivariate correlation and regression analysis based on official statistics for 2005–2023, to identify the spatial heterogeneity of these effects, and to evaluate the effectiveness of public expenditures. The results indicate that investments in SEZs show a statistically significant positive association with gross regional product (GRP) growth only in the Atyrau Region and the city of Astana, furthermore, no such relationship is observed in other regions. These findings suggest the need to revise SEZ governance and evaluation approaches, given the substantial public expenditures required over their 25-year operating period. The contribution of the study is to refine the quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of SEZs compared to previous descriptive studies. Practical recommendations include introducing a standardized indicator framework for SEZ assessment within regional programs, prioritizing innovative and export-oriented projects, and adjusting spatial development policies.