An Empirical Assessment of Rural Economic Sustainability: Panel Evidence from the Akmola Region

M.S. Balpan, O. Yu. Patlasov, Ye. K. Zharov, Anargul Belgibayeva

2026

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DOI 10.36956/rwae.v7i3.105579
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Sustainable development of rural territories remains essential for balanced regional growth, food security, and demographic stability. Nevertheless, rural areas continue to face structural challenges such as depopulation, weak investment activity, and strong dependence on public finances. These conditions require empirically grounded approaches for measuring rural economic sustainability and identifying its determinants at the municipal level. This study proposes an integral index of rural economic sustainability that combines demographic, economic, and environmental indicators using Min–Max normalization and additive aggregation with equal weights. The empirical analysis is based on a balanced panel dataset of 17 rural districts of the Akmola region for 2019–2024. The index values range from 0.22 to 0.62, revealing significant spatial disparities that appear structural rather than temporary. To identify the factors influencing these differences, the integral index is used as a dependent variable in panel regression models. Based on specification tests, the fixed-effects model is selected as the most appropriate. The findings reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between the social orientation coefficient of local budgets and rural economic sustainability (β ≈ −0.057, p < 0.01). This suggests that higher social expenditures often reflect fiscal pressure in economically weaker territories rather than contributing to immediate sustainability improvements. Other institutional and management variables show no statistically significant effects within the observed period. Overall, the results indicate that rural economic sustainability in the Akmola region is primarily shaped by long-term structural and institutional conditions, while fiscal policy plays an important but ambiguous role.