Урбанизация, миграционные процессы и демографическое развитие городов Казахстана (с конца 1990-х гг. по современный период)

ORIENTAL STUDIES, 2026

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DOI 10.22162/2619-0990-2026-83-1-85-106
Data confidence 70 medium
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Abstract

Introduction. The article considers urbanization trends, migration processes and features of demographic development of the cities of Kazakhstan from the late 1990s to the present. Particular attention is paid to the role of internal migration and natural population movement in shaping the demographic potential of cities of different ranks: megacities as key centers of migration; regional centers with a combined growth model; cities with natural demographic growth characterized by zero or negative migration balance; small and single-industry towns with depressive demographic dynamics. Goals. The article seeks to analyze urbanization processes, migration dynamics and the resulting demographic problems in the cities of Kazakhstan from the late 1990s to the present day. Materials and methods. The study focuses on statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics (Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan), results of the national population censuses of 1999, 2009, 2021. The methodological basis of the study is formed by the principles of historicism, systematicity, and comprehensive analysis, allowing us to consider urbanization as a multifactorial socio-demographic process with long-term impacts on the structure and dynamics of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The demographic component of the study is represented by the methods of demographic analysis; an interdisciplinary approach combining the methods of historical demography, social geography, and socio-economic analysis has also been used. Results. The study reveals differences in levels of urbanization and demographic dynamics across the cities of Kazakhstan. The analysis shows that urbanization processes are characterized by significant territorial heterogeneity due to socio-economic, migration, and demographic factors. It has been established that population growth in the country is uneven and concentrates mainly in large cities and agglomeration centers. At the same time, in a number of regions, small towns, and single-industry towns processes of population stagnation or decline are observed, which has formed an imbalance in the settlement system. The identified differences suggest the existence of several types of cities, differing in the nature of demographic development and ratios, natural and migration growth, as well as the degree of involvement in national urbanization processes. The results demonstrate the complexity and multifaceted nature of contemporary urbanization in Kazakhstan and serve as basis for further analysis of the spatial and socio-demographic consequences of urban population growth.